#subhamoyBlogs: Happy New Year

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Timeless - Happy New Year

All Izz Well? - Happy New Year

When you start off a brand new year, it looks so new and refreshing! We try to be as optimistic as possible in making all those new-year-resolutions - probably because we are optimist in nature. However once the year starts growing older, the freshness quickly evaporates, and it slowly becomes yet another year. All the new-year-resolutions get lost somewhere in some Post-It or notebooks.

Looking back, 2009 finally turned out to be more or less predictable. It started with a Recession which all of us thought would be unsurmountable, it went to its peak, and then it came down as well, thanks to the "stimulus" packages across the globe. Things started getting into shape, people/governments/industries started spending again, people realized they dont have enough money and started jumping off their present jobs (and some realization also dawned upon some people that money might not be the most important thing to chase in life), and the industries suddenly realized people are the biggest asset for them (Holy Shit - I thought they had this written in their Vision statement, which got lost during the Recession)! All of these happened in a matter of year - the entire sinusoidal curve taught many of us the basic lessons of Economics.

Perhaps predicting 2010 wont be so easy.

The Arab debacle made people realize that All izz not Well - even if all the honchos (and Economic Times) keep shouting from the rooftop every day. The sheer optimism that certain media houses deliver every morning can make your morning-tea taste better, but optimism is not the only thing that drives the market and economy - you realize that at the end of the day where you find that due to the volatility of the market you keep losing money almost regularly.

All the industries would remain in the tenterhooks throughout the first half of 2010 as they are still trying to find out whether the Recession is really over or not. The ghost of recession has brought about some kind of reality check in all the industries, which is good news for the shareholder but bad news for the middle-class white collar employees. The days of goodies are over. If China can be happy with a less than 5% hike year after year, why should the Indian labors not be happy with the same hike?

Indian Politics: Congress would hit a new low in 2010. Congress got a little over-confident after the last election and has started repeating history/historical blunders again. Like its monumental mistake of the Ram Janmabhoomi Shilanyas by Late Rajiv Gandhi, they ignited the Telengana fire by suddenly nodding to Chandrasekhara's fasting spree. Though they ate their word quickly realizing the circus they have triggered, it was enough to spark the fire in different corners of the country (including Gorkhaland movement in North Bengal). If "people's mandate" hits Congress in its head, there is every chance Congress would loss it in quick time. In the meanwhile, BJP looks to be setting its house in order after the debacle in the last election. Lets hope that there would be atleast some kind of bipolar politics in India in 2010.

West Bengal Politics: There is a wind of change blowing over West Bengal politics. There are too many variables - the TMC, the Congress, the CPI(M), the Maoist, the Gorkhaland and so on. There is very little +ve in all the nonsense that is prevailing over the WB politics. The best thing that can happen is - there is another stable government in 2011 - but that is to be discussed after 1 year unless there is any blunder from Central Government.

On a hindsight, there is a sudden rise in Left movements in India - probably Indian psyche is not so comfortable yet with the idea of Market economy. The Parliamentary Left teams are yet to realize it. They were late in grabbing the Market economy and now they are trying to make it up by running faster which may backfire to them in no time.

Technology: There wont be too many new things in 2010. It takes money and time to bring out something extraordinary - the money part (funding) was missing all over 2009 which would delay the new-stories. There can be some game changers though - there are some non-Indian software services companies which are moving at a faster rate than the Indian counterparts. Probably we might see some M&A/Acquisition in this market space in the next few months. The Indian MNCs are now too big to loose their business overnight.

Overall 2010 has started with a lot of hope. But 2009 made us more realistic - it taught industries how to keep its feet in the ground. 2010 would see some cautious movements in the industry. There would be hike - but not like yesteryears. There would be career movements - but don't expect any meteoric rise. There would new business - but there would be billing pressure and also there would be more demand on skilled employees. Actually I am tempted to say that we may need to revisit this space after 6 months as we expect too many things in 2010.

Hope 09

2008 is finally going to be over. What an year it was!!! Too many incidents to recount - both at personal and global level. In the personal front, the most non trivial incident for me was changing the status in Orkut from "Looking out" to "No More". Global incidents would be captured by the media anyway for the archiving purpose - no point in wasting blogger's space on that.

Hence I was wondering - instead of analysing what went well (and what didnt), wont it be better to do a guesstimate of whats gonna happen in 2009?

1. Lets start with the Recession - "the biggest ever to hit the world economy after the Great Depression". My take - it would continue till June 09 and then the curves would start moving north! This is purely a guess work based on some baseless intuition. See, the Indian leaderspeak looks to be hinting towards a 2-3 Quarter cycle time to get over this recession. And there is no reason to have the global economy down for a prolonged time, simply because the entire system cant sustain to be in red beyond a certain timelength. That would crash the entire system! The cash reserve of the global economy would (must) bail it out if it cant recover on its own - and thats gonna happen by June (based on my research). Think the Obama factor also - he would be too eager to fix this issue once he gets into the office - he has to show something fast. 6 months should be reasonable for him.

However at times I still wonder - is it the failure of a single bank which is causing this whole chain of events? Isnt it too much of over simplification? I need to study Finance someday (lets see if I can include it as part of my new year resolution - too difficult though).

2. Indian Politics: Congress+ would return to power. BJP+ would be a close second. BJP would be too confused about the way of attack and would keep mumbling about so many things.

3. India would not go for a war with Pakistan - but would keep talking tough (at times nonsense) till the early 09 election. And that would help Congress to get into power again.

4. Technology: Let me talk only about Mobile phone technologies as I am only conversant with it these days. Android is going to be B-I-G in 2009 as the previous platforms are already tested and in the market for a while. Also there would be a craze about this "new thing" in the market. Everyone wants to own an Android phone these days - good for us, the developers :-) As long as the need for change is there in the consumer's mind, I am going to earn my bread (and tickets of SRK movies).

5. Bollywood: SRK would get the Academy awards for the Best Actor! Amir Khan would open a tattoo shop!! Katrina and Salman would remain good friends!!!

6. Indian Cricket: Dhoni would lose Indian captaincy. His bigger-than-Tau image would cost him the captaincy. Viru/Yuvi might show up in the chair.

7. Indian IT industry: The big 3 (TCS, Wipro & Infosys) would lose some of its best resources as they would become impatient with the recession story. Who gains at the cost of them? MNC product companies and educational institutes. Research scholarship would be back in demand. The positive side: India would get some of its best scholars in the areas where they are needed most. Indian IT industry would actually gain at the end of this recession. The cost cutting of the US/UK based industries would force to look at the Indian options.

But looking at the shrinking cost differnce, it doesnt look to be the lone differentiator thats going to work for Indian IT. Result: Outsourcing would increase, but not at India.

Overall, 09 would be a little dull in the first half. The hangover of 08 would remain there and create the headaches. But the second half looks juicy, if not amazing.

Hence the verdict is out for you - the lesser mortals: Dont get too imaptient by June. Picture abhi baki hain mere Dost!