All Izz Well? - Happy New Year

When you start off a brand new year, it looks so new and refreshing! We try to be as optimistic as possible in making all those new-year-resolutions - probably because we are optimist in nature. However once the year starts growing older, the freshness quickly evaporates, and it slowly becomes yet another year. All the new-year-resolutions get lost somewhere in some Post-It or notebooks.

Looking back, 2009 finally turned out to be more or less predictable. It started with a Recession which all of us thought would be unsurmountable, it went to its peak, and then it came down as well, thanks to the "stimulus" packages across the globe. Things started getting into shape, people/governments/industries started spending again, people realized they dont have enough money and started jumping off their present jobs (and some realization also dawned upon some people that money might not be the most important thing to chase in life), and the industries suddenly realized people are the biggest asset for them (Holy Shit - I thought they had this written in their Vision statement, which got lost during the Recession)! All of these happened in a matter of year - the entire sinusoidal curve taught many of us the basic lessons of Economics.

Perhaps predicting 2010 wont be so easy.

The Arab debacle made people realize that All izz not Well - even if all the honchos (and Economic Times) keep shouting from the rooftop every day. The sheer optimism that certain media houses deliver every morning can make your morning-tea taste better, but optimism is not the only thing that drives the market and economy - you realize that at the end of the day where you find that due to the volatility of the market you keep losing money almost regularly.

All the industries would remain in the tenterhooks throughout the first half of 2010 as they are still trying to find out whether the Recession is really over or not. The ghost of recession has brought about some kind of reality check in all the industries, which is good news for the shareholder but bad news for the middle-class white collar employees. The days of goodies are over. If China can be happy with a less than 5% hike year after year, why should the Indian labors not be happy with the same hike?

Indian Politics: Congress would hit a new low in 2010. Congress got a little over-confident after the last election and has started repeating history/historical blunders again. Like its monumental mistake of the Ram Janmabhoomi Shilanyas by Late Rajiv Gandhi, they ignited the Telengana fire by suddenly nodding to Chandrasekhara's fasting spree. Though they ate their word quickly realizing the circus they have triggered, it was enough to spark the fire in different corners of the country (including Gorkhaland movement in North Bengal). If "people's mandate" hits Congress in its head, there is every chance Congress would loss it in quick time. In the meanwhile, BJP looks to be setting its house in order after the debacle in the last election. Lets hope that there would be atleast some kind of bipolar politics in India in 2010.

West Bengal Politics: There is a wind of change blowing over West Bengal politics. There are too many variables - the TMC, the Congress, the CPI(M), the Maoist, the Gorkhaland and so on. There is very little +ve in all the nonsense that is prevailing over the WB politics. The best thing that can happen is - there is another stable government in 2011 - but that is to be discussed after 1 year unless there is any blunder from Central Government.

On a hindsight, there is a sudden rise in Left movements in India - probably Indian psyche is not so comfortable yet with the idea of Market economy. The Parliamentary Left teams are yet to realize it. They were late in grabbing the Market economy and now they are trying to make it up by running faster which may backfire to them in no time.

Technology: There wont be too many new things in 2010. It takes money and time to bring out something extraordinary - the money part (funding) was missing all over 2009 which would delay the new-stories. There can be some game changers though - there are some non-Indian software services companies which are moving at a faster rate than the Indian counterparts. Probably we might see some M&A/Acquisition in this market space in the next few months. The Indian MNCs are now too big to loose their business overnight.

Overall 2010 has started with a lot of hope. But 2009 made us more realistic - it taught industries how to keep its feet in the ground. 2010 would see some cautious movements in the industry. There would be hike - but not like yesteryears. There would be career movements - but don't expect any meteoric rise. There would new business - but there would be billing pressure and also there would be more demand on skilled employees. Actually I am tempted to say that we may need to revisit this space after 6 months as we expect too many things in 2010.