2008 is finally going to be over. What an year it was!!! Too many incidents to recount - both at personal and global level. In the personal front, the most non trivial incident for me was changing the status in Orkut from "Looking out" to "No More". Global incidents would be captured by the media anyway for the archiving purpose - no point in wasting blogger's space on that.
Hence I was wondering - instead of analysing what went well (and what didnt), wont it be better to do a guesstimate of whats gonna happen in 2009?
1. Lets start with the Recession - "the biggest ever to hit the world economy after the Great Depression". My take - it would continue till June 09 and then the curves would start moving north! This is purely a guess work based on some baseless intuition. See, the Indian leaderspeak looks to be hinting towards a 2-3 Quarter cycle time to get over this recession. And there is no reason to have the global economy down for a prolonged time, simply because the entire system cant sustain to be in red beyond a certain timelength. That would crash the entire system! The cash reserve of the global economy would (must) bail it out if it cant recover on its own - and thats gonna happen by June (based on my research). Think the Obama factor also - he would be too eager to fix this issue once he gets into the office - he has to show something fast. 6 months should be reasonable for him.
However at times I still wonder - is it the failure of a single bank which is causing this whole chain of events? Isnt it too much of over simplification? I need to study Finance someday (lets see if I can include it as part of my new year resolution - too difficult though).
2. Indian Politics: Congress+ would return to power. BJP+ would be a close second. BJP would be too confused about the way of attack and would keep mumbling about so many things.
3. India would not go for a war with Pakistan - but would keep talking tough (at times nonsense) till the early 09 election. And that would help Congress to get into power again.
4. Technology: Let me talk only about Mobile phone technologies as I am only conversant with it these days. Android is going to be B-I-G in 2009 as the previous platforms are already tested and in the market for a while. Also there would be a craze about this "new thing" in the market. Everyone wants to own an Android phone these days - good for us, the developers :-) As long as the need for change is there in the consumer's mind, I am going to earn my bread (and tickets of SRK movies).
5. Bollywood: SRK would get the Academy awards for the Best Actor! Amir Khan would open a tattoo shop!! Katrina and Salman would remain good friends!!!
6. Indian Cricket: Dhoni would lose Indian captaincy. His bigger-than-Tau image would cost him the captaincy. Viru/Yuvi might show up in the chair.
7. Indian IT industry: The big 3 (TCS, Wipro & Infosys) would lose some of its best resources as they would become impatient with the recession story. Who gains at the cost of them? MNC product companies and educational institutes. Research scholarship would be back in demand. The positive side: India would get some of its best scholars in the areas where they are needed most. Indian IT industry would actually gain at the end of this recession. The cost cutting of the US/UK based industries would force to look at the Indian options.
But looking at the shrinking cost differnce, it doesnt look to be the lone differentiator thats going to work for Indian IT. Result: Outsourcing would increase, but not at India.
Overall, 09 would be a little dull in the first half. The hangover of 08 would remain there and create the headaches. But the second half looks juicy, if not amazing.
Hence the verdict is out for you - the lesser mortals: Dont get too imaptient by June. Picture abhi baki hain mere Dost!
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